Make trade, no war
Have we stopped making wars because we trade too much? Human history counts many black pages of wars and all the destruction caused by them. Yet the unprecedented Long Peace from the end of World War II until today is a bright page, one of a kind. Of course, regional conflicts and civil wars are far from extinct, but no armed conflicts have erupted between the major economic powers since 1945, while international wars have been significantly diminished. The cost of war has risen along with the technological progress, and so has the “value” of human life. Public opinion is a strong decision-making factor, especially in democratic states. Social stability combined with financial prosperity make it hard for a government to “sell” the idea of war to the people. It is not surprising that the big global players prefer to fight their battles through proxy wars or protect their interests through trade wars.
Trade is a powerful tool that can enhance cooperation and dependence between states, it can be used as a means of coercion and punishment from the powerful states towards their less mighty counterparts or through it, the emerging powers can challenge the international status quo. Montesquieu’s words that “peace is the natural effect of trade” seem today more relevant than ever. He was referring to the peace theory that states become interdependent because of their trade relations, and therefore a war between them would be mutually destructive. It is more beneficial for them to cover their need by trading than by making war. A great example of commercial liberalism is the European Union and furthermore more the current ties between the two leading powers of the Union and fearsome adversaries in both World Wars, Germany and France.
Surely, the rise of free trade along with capitalism and the promotion of economic cooperation through International Organizations like WTO and OECD have laid the ground for stronger partnerships in a more structured environment. Nonetheless, protectionism always present. Although significantly diminished, tariffs, subsidies and quotas are still in place. This may create some conflicts, but the escalation to arm conflict seems very farfetched. What may come into effect is sanctions. Trade sanctions can lead to a fierce trade war, we have seen such actions in the recent past, but they will hardly lead to a war zone. Lately a swift to other forms of sanctions is observed, such as economic sanctions targeting a political elite or travel restrictions. There is an ongoing battle, throughout our history, between the global powers that want to protect their supremacy and the emerging powers that challenge the status quo, but after two World Wars the battlefield is the diplomatic arena and the arms used are powered by money not bullets.
